q1 2026 MARKET INSIGHTS
First Quarter 2026 Market Review
April 16, 2026
In this quarterly market update, Leonard Golub, CFA, discusses the geopolitical and economic developments that shaped the first quarter of 2026, including global conflict, energy markets, tariffs, and investor sentiment. He outlines how New Capital is approaching today’s environment with a focus on diversification, portfolio positioning, and long-term planning.
Key Takeaways
A U.S.-led oil ‘superblock’ may now control over 62% of global proven reserves—an outcome that may reflect one potential strategic dynamic of the Iran conflict.
NCM's Global Core portfolios finished Q1 positively.
NCM adjusted U.S. Treasury exposure and added a modest allocation to gold as a potential volatility buffer.
Tariffs didn't go away - they were restructured under national security law and now rival corporate income taxes as a federal revenue source.
Consumer sentiment is near historic lows, which has historically been associated with periods of stronger subsequent market performance, though outcomes can vary.
The Geopolitical Backdrop
This webinar, “Markets React to New Violent Conflicts," highlights how violence changes the investing calculus in ways uncertainty alone does not, and the first quarter of 2026 made that clear.
Leonard Golub's central thesis: the U.S. has shifted from rules-based governance to power-driven economics. Governance risk is no longer just an emerging-market concern. Volatility is structural, not cyclical. And diversification must now account for jurisdictional exposure - not just sector or industry risk.
The Oil Superblock: What the Iran Conflict May Really Be About
The most striking analysis of the webinar was Leonard's original breakdown of global oil control. He outlined a scenario in which, if the U.S. were to consolidate greater influence over Venezuela, Iran, and its Gulf Cooperation Council allies, a single superblock could command over 62.5% of global proven oil reserves—with just 6.3% of the world's population. By economic definition, this would represent a high level of market concentration.
The result: the U.S. moves from market participant to market gatekeeper in global energy, with China, India, and Europe left resource-poor and dependent. Oil prices have already increased, and historically, elevated prices following major conflicts have sometimes persisted for extended periods.
Portfolio Performance: A Strong Quarter
While U.S. equity markets struggled, NCM’s Global Core portfolios, which represent the approach most clients are in, posted positive results in Q1 and performed well relative to broader market conditions. Small- and value-factor tilts, along with energy sector exposure, contributed to results.
Year-to-date through mid-April, results have remained positive across portfolio models. Balanced and equity-oriented approaches have benefited from diversification, with positioning in areas such as energy and value contributing to results.
The Bigger Picture
Asked about gold as a hedge, Leonard emphasized NCM portfolios are built to address inflation, currency risk, oil shocks, and governance instability—no single asset alone can do that. Q1 2026 tested that philosophy. The portfolios remained resilient during the quarter.
I hope you will join us.
Our market update webinars are a popular way for New Capital clients to stay informed, gain timely insights, and better understand what’s moving the markets. They are a trusted resource for those seeking insight without the noise.
- Leonard Golub
Looking Back: Past Reviews
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Our stock market update webinars cover current financial market news, economic trends, and portfolio performance — all from a long-term, fiduciary perspective. We help you understand what’s happening in the markets and what it may mean for your investments.
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Webinars are led by Leonard Golub, CFA, President. Leonard offers clear, thoughtful insights on markets, strategy, and portfolio performance. Clients value his ability to explain complex trends in a way that’s practical, measured, and aligned with long-term goals.
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Disclosures
The information presented in this market update is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.