Q1 2026 Market Review: Global Conflict, Oil, and Your Portfolio
Webinar Key Takeaways
A U.S.-led oil ‘superblock’ may now control over 62% of global proven reserves—an outcome that may reflect one potential strategic dynamic of the Iran conflict. (16:40)
NCM's Global Core portfolios finished Q1 positively. (29:00)
NCM adjusted U.S. Treasury exposure and added a modest allocation to gold as a potential volatility buffer. (37:00)
Tariffs didn't go away - they were restructured under national security law and now rival corporate income taxes as a federal revenue source. (44:55)
Consumer sentiment is near historic lows, which has historically been associated with periods of stronger subsequent market performance, though outcomes can vary. (50:48)
The Geopolitical Backdrop
This webinar, “Markets React to New Violent Conflicts," highlights how violence changes the investing calculus in ways uncertainty alone does not, and the first quarter of 2026 made that clear.
Leonard Golub's central thesis: the U.S. has shifted from rules-based governance to power-driven economics. Governance risk is no longer just an emerging-market concern. Volatility is structural, not cyclical. And diversification must now account for jurisdictional exposure - not just sector or industry risk.
The Oil Superblock: What the Iran Conflict May Really Be About
The most striking analysis of the webinar was Leonard's original breakdown of global oil control. He outlined a scenario in which, if the U.S. were to consolidate greater influence over Venezuela, Iran, and its Gulf Cooperation Council allies, a single superblock could command over 62.5% of global proven oil reserves—with just 6.3% of the world's population. By economic definition, this would represent a high level of market concentration.
The result: the U.S. moves from market participant to market gatekeeper in global energy, with China, India, and Europe left resource-poor and dependent. Oil prices have already increased, and historically, elevated prices following major conflicts have sometimes persisted for extended periods.
Portfolio Performance: A Strong Quarter
While U.S. equity markets struggled, NCM’s Global Core portfolios, which represent the approach most clients are in, posted positive results in Q1 and performed well relative to broader market conditions. Small- and value-factor tilts, along with energy sector exposure, contributed to results.
Year-to-date through mid-April, results have remained positive across portfolio models. Balanced and equity-oriented approaches have benefited from diversification, with positioning in areas such as energy and value contributing to results.
The Bigger Picture
Asked about gold as a hedge, Leonard emphasized NCM portfolios are built to address inflation, currency risk, oil shocks, and governance instability—no single asset alone can do that.
Q1 2026 tested that philosophy. The portfolios remained resilient during the quarter.
Questions? Feel free to submit them to the form below. Our team will follow up with you.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Advisory services offered through New Capital Management LP, a registered investment adviser.
Do you have a question about this webinar?
Submit your question below.