
The New Capital JOURNAL
Financial news, views, advice, and guidance.
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Government Shutdowns and Investors
A government shutdown is here, halting nonessential services while core functions remain. History shows markets usually take these in stride, though longer standoffs can weigh on growth.
Quarterly Review: Stocks Hit Fresh Highs, and the Fed Makes a Cut
Stocks extended gains in Q3, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs after the Fed’s first rate cut since 2024. Small caps outperformed, emerging markets led globally, and bonds advanced as yields eased, signaling broad momentum across markets.
Rate Cuts Are Here
The Fed cut rates by 0.25% in September, citing a softer labor market. While tariff-related inflation may still emerge, more cuts could follow depending on jobs and prices. Lower rates may weigh on savers but could support stocks if the economy avoids recession.
Are NVIDIA’s Earnings Big Enough for You?
NVIDIA’s earnings rose more than 60% over the past year, far outpacing the S&P 500, yet its shares slipped as high valuations left little room for upside. With nearly 8% of the index but about 4% of its earnings, the stock shows how markets price future expectations.
AI Is Everywhere, Including Your Portfolio
AI is reshaping business, and your portfolio can ride the wave. Major AI ETFs cover hundreds of companies, from tech leaders to unexpected names. Diversified exposure helps investors access AI opportunities without gambling on a single winner.
Stagflation: Not the 1970s
Inflation remains steady while growth shows signs of slowing, raising stagflation concerns. Unlike the 1970s, today’s economy faces different energy and labor dynamics, but investors may still manage risk with diversified portfolios and selective bonds.
One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB): Impact On charitable Giving
Charitable giving rules shift under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. From new deductions for non-itemizers to limits for high-income donors, 2025 changes make it essential to rethink timing, mix of gifts, and strategies to maximize impact and efficiency.
Is a Long-Term Care ‘Hybrid’ Policy Right for You?
Stand-alone long-term care insurance is declining as hybrid policies gain popularity. These combination products provide a death benefit or lifetime income even if care isn’t needed, though complexity, lump-sum costs, and opportunity considerations remain key factors.
5 by 5 Power in Trust - What You Need to Know
Estate planning meets flexibility with the 5 by 5 Power in Trust. Beneficiaries can access Trust assets annually, balancing immediate financial needs with asset protection and long-term tax efficiency.
What the New Tax Laws Mean for Your Retirement Plan
Assessing the new over-65 deduction and its implications for Social Security taxation, as well as new rules for charitable giving and the SALT deduction.
The Power of Human Ingenuity
Markets rise not because predictions are right, but because people innovate, adapt, and persevere. David Booth argues that investing is a long-term bet on human ingenuity—and history shows it's a powerful one.
10 Things to Look for Before Choosing the Best Home Care Assistance
Choosing the right home care means evaluating services, caregiver credentials, and flexibility to ensure a safe, supportive fit.
Midyear Review: Stocks’ Climb Is Challenged During Volatile First Half
Markets were volatile in early 2025 amid tariff concerns and Fed uncertainty. Despite sharp swings, the S&P 500 rose slightly. Value outperformed growth, and global stocks led U.S. equities. Bonds gained modestly. Staying disciplined helped amid turbulence.
Where Are Interest Rates Going Next?
In June, the Fed maintained rates, prioritizing inflation control despite tariff-driven uncertainties. While two rate cuts are anticipated by year-end, policymakers await clear evidence of labor market softening. During bond market volatility, disciplined, goal-focused investing remains essential.
How Likely Are You to Have an Extended Long-Term Care Need?
Long-term care can bring unexpected, significant costs for retirees, while many need some assistance, a smaller portion face extended care expenses. Thoughtful planning, including insurance, home equity, or Medicaid options, can help safeguard your financial security and dignity in later years.
Moving Out of State? Time to Review Your Estate Plan
Relocating to a new state requires reviewing and updating your estate plan to comply with state-specific laws. Variations in wills, trusts, executors, and powers of attorney can impact your legacy and your family’s experience. Ensure your documents reflect your new state’s requirements for peace of mind.
The Best States to Retire for Taxes
Where you retire could shape your financial future more than you think. State tax policies on IRA withdrawals vary widely, and choosing the right state—especially if you're married—could mean saving thousands each year and stretching your nest egg further.
Navigating Volatility: Learning From History
Market volatility is back, but history shows it's normal and often followed by strong rebounds. Staying invested is key—missing top days can halve returns. Diversification, risk-aware strategies, and long-term discipline can help investors navigate uncertain times.
Recession and Markets
Despite recession fears driven by political and economic uncertainty, history shows markets often rebound. In 11 of 12 past U.S. recessions, $1 invested at the start saw gains over three years, averaging 43.2%—similar to long-term market performance.
Does the US Debt Downgrade Matter for Investors?
Moody’s stripped the US of its last perfect credit rating as debt levels surge and fiscal gridlock persists. While short-term market volatility is possible, Treasury bonds remain strong and rising yields may create new opportunities for income-focused investors.