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With U.S. tariffs now averaging 19%—the highest since 1933—history offers key lessons. Past tariff waves, from McKinley to Smoot-Hawley, often led to higher prices and weaker trade. Today’s tariffs are again pressuring growth, prompting strategic shifts for investors.

US Treasury yields have fallen this year, reflecting concerns about near-term stagflation, as the Federal Reserve’s March meeting highlighted increased uncertainty about economic growth and a shift towards prioritizing growth risks over inflation.

Large cap U.S. stocks have pulled back 6% from all-time highs, which on average is seen four times a year. As investors find themselves in the thick of the policy fog, the tug-of-war between growth worries, inflation worries and fiscal concerns is set to continue.

Given the deep trade ties between North America’s economies, tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could significantly reduce GDP and increase inflation in both countries, disrupting supply chains and industries reliant on cross-border commerce.

Given AI’s rapid evolution, DeepSeek’s emergence has disrupted markets by developing a high-performing model at a fraction of the cost of major tech firms. While this challenges assumptions about AI development, it doesn’t fundamentally alter the investment case for U.S. leadership. Investors should stay diversified and consider broader AI beneficiaries.

While it may be premature for the Fed to incorporate tariff implications into monetary policy decisions, current data on resilient growth, healthy labor markets and other factors suggest that the Fed's path may be more gradual and may settle at a higher level than their latest projections indicate.

Despite lackluster sentiment, Americans have not stopped spending. Consumption is expected to have grown at a solid 3% ann. pace in the third quarter, supporting continued earnings growth for U.S. companies.

All told, while the U.S. dollar might soften modestly from here, it will soften unevenly against major global currencies.

In the last 10 years, markets like Taiwan and India have kept up with the U.S., returning 12.3% and 10.1% respectively, compared to 12.0% for U.S. equities on an annualized basis.

It would likely take an extraordinary change in the data to bring a June cut back on the table, but the Fed’s path thereafter is still to be determined, and remains reliant on how inflation progresses from here.

All things considered; we stick to our base case for three rate reductions this year beginning in June.

For Europe and Japan, the return of inflation and positive interest rates is a game changer: earnings have improved as a result of higher end-consumer prices.

With geopolitical tensions on the boil, major moves and milestones in markets and a slew of upbeat economic data, January has been a wild ride.

Maintaining a disciplined approach to investing is critical to achieving one’s long-term investment goals. We have compiled five key principles for investing in an election year.

Performance in developed markets excluding the U.S. has been much less concentrated year-to-date: the top 10 companies in the index are up 13.7%, while the remaining stocks are up 6.7%.

While a reacceleration in growth and/or inflation could prompt another rate hike either in December or early next year, short-term bumps in a downward trending economy likely keep the Fed on hold well into 2024.

2023 has seen more office conversion activity – while sometimes this can be easier said than done, it does suggest that there is an evolving opportunity in the office space for investors who can deploy additional capital.

The first half of the year turned out to be better than expected, with Europe dodging recession, China emerging from a multi-year lockdown and a tight U.S. labor market providing a boost to activity.

The likely cause for declining oil prices is increased U.S. production, which is expected to reach an all-time high in 2023.

Beneath the surface are two market dynamics: the megacap tech stocks, which account for the lion’s share of positive market performance year-to-date, and everything else.

The announcement made it clear that the committee still needs more compelling evidence that inflation is under control and could very well tighten at least once more this summer.

Falling energy and electricity prices helped disinflation in headline CPI, which rose just 0.1% on the month, while stickiness in shelter, used cars and transportation services kept core inflation steady at 0.4%.

Although rates have risen across the curve in recent weeks due to debt ceiling uncertainty, more hawkish Fed expectations, and resilient economic data, the overall macro landscape is one of slowing growth and receding inflation.

For Americans planning for retirement, the obvious implication is to save and invest more. Beyond this, it has become increasingly necessary to have some assets outside of traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

The U.S. reached its debt limit of USD 31.4 trillion on January 19th and has since been relying on funds in the Treasury General Account (TGA) and so-called “extraordinary measures” to fund its obligations.

On March 15, the Federal Reserve announced a new payment service called FedNow. The announcement came roughly a year after President Biden signed an executive order tasking the Federal Reserve with looking into a CBDC for the U.S. financial system.

Much of the “stickiness” that has been ascribed to core services may largely reflect the lingering hangover of supply chain issues, where Fed policy has little impact.

The Federal Reserve acknowledged the potential implications of banking turmoil on the economic outlook but highlighted that at this point, it’s uncertain how big that impact will be.

Putting aside the obvious implications of the above – namely uncertainty and, in turn, volatility – it would be wise to also consider what this means for the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.